Tariffs, Natural Selection, and India: A “Guns, Germs, and Steel” Perspective

By Akshay kumar Bommena

I recently finished reading Jared Diamond’s Guns, Germs, and Steel, and it reshapes a look at modern economics. When most people think of tariffs, they think of dry policy numbers, trade wars, and bureaucratic negotiations. But if we zoom out and apply Diamond’s framework, tariffs start to look like an evolutionary force in the global economy one that shapes who thrives and who fades away.

Diamond’s thesis is simple yet profound: history’s winners weren’t necessarily the most intelligent or hardworking they were the most geographically and resourcefully lucky. Civilizations flourished when they had access to fertile land, domesticable animals, favorable climates, and interconnected trade routes. Those advantages snowballed, creating technology, wealth, and military strength.

Now, replace civilizations with modern nations, and the same principle applies. Only today’s “geography” isn’t just rivers and mountains, it’s trade access, technology ecosystems, and tariff-free markets.

Tariffs as Economic Natural Selection

Tariffs act like a climate shift in the ecosystem. Just as an ice age would eliminate species not adapted to the cold, high tariffs can wipe out exporters who depend on low cost, high-volume trade. In this sense, tariffs are artificial evolutionary pressures, forcing nations to adapt or perish in certain industries.

• Winners are countries that can innovate around tariffs through cost efficiency, brand power, niche products, or shifting supply chains.

• Losers are those whose competitive advantage was purely based on low labor cost or resource access and can’t pivot quickly.

In Diamond’s terms, tariffs are the “geography” of the modern trade world they change the lay of the land without anyone moving a single mountain.

India’s Place in This Evolution

India is a fascinating case study. Its geographic luck a huge coastline, access to both the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, varied climate zones for diverse agriculture, and a large domestic market means it can both produce and consume a wide range of goods. Historically, this made India a coveted part of the global trade network for spices, textiles, and gems.

Today, India’s exports range from IT services and pharmaceuticals to gems, cotton, and machinery. In a high-tariff global future, India’s adaptability will decide its survival rate in various sectors.

• IT and Digital Services – Minimal impact from tariffs, but high exposure to AI and automation.

• Agricultural and Luxury Goods – India’s “heritage advantage” (e.g., Darjeeling tea, mangoes, handwoven fabrics) is tariff-resistant due to cultural demand.

• Manufacturing – Vulnerable unless India moves up the value chain from assembly to innovation.

  
  

Natural Selection in Modern Trade

In biology, the species that survive are not the strongest, but the most adaptable. In trade, the same holds true. Countries that survive tariff shocks are those that:

1. Diversify Exports – Not relying on just one sector.

2. Climb the Value Chain – From low-cost manufacturing to IP-driven products.

3. Leverage Uniqueness – Cultural exports, heritage foods, and artisanal crafts that can’t be replicated by machines.

   
   

For India, this means betting on:

• High-skill services that AI complements rather than replaces.

• Export branding that makes “Made in India” synonymous with quality and heritage.

• Strategic trade alliances to reduce tariff exposure in key markets.

  
  

The Big Picture

The Guns, Germs, and Steel framework reminds us that much of economic success comes from starting advantages geography, resources, and connectivity. But in today’s globalized world, man-made geography like tariff walls can rewire trade maps overnight.